Brazil has a 51% chance of reaching the 2022 World Cup final
The 2022 World Cup still has 10 teams after the series of matches on the evening of December 5, in which three quarter-final pairs have been determined as Netherlands - Argentina, England - France and Brazil - Croatia. The remaining two pairs in the 1/8 round are Spain - Switzerland and Portugal - Morocco, taking place on the evening of December 6. Of the 10 teams mentioned above, Brazil is considered the best candidate with a 77% chance of reaching the semi-finals, 51% of the final and 32% of the championship.
Argentina is second with a 58% chance of reaching the semi-finals, a 24% chance of reaching the final and 13% of the championship. Argentina's chances with Spain, England and France are approximately the same. The Netherlands and Portugal are in the latter group with only 7% and 6% chance of winning, respectively.
Brazil have never lost to Croatia in their previous four meetings, including two at the World Cup. The yellow and green shirt team won 1-0 in the group stage of the 2006 World Cup and 3-1 in the group stage of the 2014 World Cup. Brazil will meet the Netherlands or Argentina in the semi-finals.
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Sharing the same opinion with Fivethirtyeight, but Opta statistics say that Brazil is not too different from other teams. According to Opta, Brazil's chance of winning is 22.1%, while Argentina is second with 18.8%, followed by France 15.1% and England 13.4%. They rate the Dutch championship's ability higher than both Spain and Portugal, mainly because the two Iberian peninsula teams have yet to play in the 1/8 round.
The bookies also rate Brazil's chances of winning the highest. A British bookie makes the odds that Brazil will win the championship at 2/1, which means one to two bets. France, Argentina, England and Spain, respectively, are behind with the ratio from May 23 to February 17. The odds for Portugal winning the 2022 World Cup are much lower, at 31/2.
The views of experts like Dave Tickner of Football365 or Doug McIntyre of Fox Sports, also lean towards Brazil. McIntyre even wrote: "Only a fool would not put the Brazilian door painted on the sixth star on the chest, symbolizing the sixth World Cup championship".
