Man Utd is forecasted to have a 2% chance of winning the Premier League
After the victory at Emirates, FiveThirtyEight said that the army under Pep Guardiola has a 62% ability to defend the throne. Man City is expected to finish with 83 points to win the fourth title in the last five seasons.
Meanwhile, Arsenal's championship rate dropped to 34%. After defeating Man Utd 3-2 on January 22, Mikel Arteta's teachers and students fell with a series of four games without winning. They lost to Man City, Everton, drew Brentford in the English Premier League and lost to Man City in the fourth round of the FA Cup. FiveThirtyEight predicts 81 as Arsenal's overall score this season.
The defeat at home on February 15 also caused the "Gunners" to lose the top of the Premier League table to Man City for the first time since the third round. However, the "Gunners" still have the right to self-determine the championship by playing one match less than the opponent. In the next two rounds, Arsenal as a guest of Aston Villa on February 18, then marched to Leicester's field on February 25.
Man Utd is the only team in Europe that still competes in all four arenas. The army under Erik ten Hag lost only one of the last 17 matches in all competitions, rose to third in the Premier League, reached the final of the League Cup, entered the fifth round of the FA Cup and just played Barca in the first leg of the play-off. Europa League.
However, FiveThirtyEight estimates Man Utd has only a 2% chance of winning the Premier League for the first time since the 2012-2013 season under Sir Alex Ferguson. The maximum number of points that "Red Devils" are predicted to earn this season is 72.
Newcastle is expected to finish fourth and win the final ticket to the Champions League. Following are Brighton, Tottenham and Liverpool respectively. Meanwhile, Chelsea - the club spent a total of $ 668 million to bring in 16 players over the last two transfer windows - is expected to finish eighth with 57 points, equal to Brentford. "The Blues" also only have a 5% chance of winning the Champions League next season through the domestic tournament.
At the bottom of the table, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Everton, Bournemouth and Southampton will not be able to stay in the Premier League. All three clubs have more than 50% chance of relegation, with Southampton having the highest rate of 77.
At the beginning of the year, when Arsenal were seven points ahead of Man City, FiveThirtyEight rated the army under Mikel Arteta the highest with a 50% probability of winning, compared to 41% of Man City. This super computer predicts Arsenal will become the new king with 85 points, two points more than Man City.
FiveThirtyEight, which gets its name from the number of electors in the US Electoral College, was created by analyst Nate Silver as a poll aggregator. They have been predicting the results of major football tournaments since 2017 using expert methods. FiveThirtyEight takes into account a number of factors when weighing predictions, including each team's football strength index - SPI rating - rating.
Before the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, FiveThirtyEight predicts Brazil to be the strongest candidate with a 22% chance of winning the Gold Cup. Meanwhile, the champion Argentina is only rated 8%.
